I am currently co-PI (jointly with José Santana Pereira from ISCTE-IUL) of a project funded by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation which addresses the mechanisms and impacts of non-voting in Portugal (September 2021 - January 2025).
I have recently started to take an interest on the electoral effects of natural disasters and their relief efforts. Please get in touch if you want to check the latest copy of my paper currently under development, provisionally titled "Electoral aftershocks: the effects of an earthquake in a multilevel political setting", which deals with the aftermath of the 1998 earthquake in the Azores.
Pedro Magalhães & João Cancela (2025), 'Political Neglect and Support for the Radical Right: The Case of Rural Portugal', Political Geography, Volume 116, January 2025, 10322 (open access)
Anna M. Palau, Elisabetta De Giorgi, Luz Muñoz & Joao Cancela (2023), ' The Effect of Ideological Distance on Voting Behaviour in Parliament Under Changing Economic Conditions: A Comparison Between Portugal and Spain', Representation, online first. PDF
Mario Quaranta, João Cancela, Irene Martín & Yannis Tsirbas (2021), 'Trust, Satisfaction and Political Engagement during Economic Crisis: Young Citizens in Southern Europe', South European Society and Politics, PDF
José Santana Pereira and João Cancela (2021), ' Demand without Supply? Populist Attitudes and Voting Behaviour in Post-Bailout Portugal' South European Society and Politics , online first. PDF
João Cancela (2020), 'Some politics is local: the determinants of engagement in local and national politics across Europe' Quaderni dell’Osservatorio Elettorale. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 83(1), 29-44. PDF
Elisabetta De Giorgi and João Cancela (2019), 'The Portuguese radical left parties supporting government: from policy takers to policy makers?' Government and Opposition. PDF
Marco Lisi and João Cancela (2019), 'Types of party members and their implications: results from a survey of Portuguese party members', Party Politics , 25 (3), 390-400. PDF
João Cancela, António Luís Dias and Marco Lisi (2017). 'The impact of endorsements in intra-party elections: evidence from open primaries in a new Portuguese party', Politics, Vol 37, Issue 2. PDF. The replication code is available here.
Pedro T. Magalhães, João Cancela and Catherine Moury (2016) 'Scattered Clouds in the Horizon of Consensus: Attitudes of Portuguese Parliamentary Elites towards Europe before and after the Crisis', Historical Social Research, 41.4, December 2016, 173-194. PDF
João Cancela and Benny Geys (2016). ' Explaining Voter Turnout: A Meta-Analysis of National and Subnational Elections', Electoral Studies 42, 264–275. PDF
João Cancela, Thierry Dias Coelho, and João Pedro Ruivo (2014). 'Mapping Political Research in Portugal: Scientific Articles in National Academic Journals (2000–2012)', European Political Science 13, 327–339. PDF
Filipa Raimundo and João Cancela (2021). As eleições de 1975 : eleições fundadoras da democracia portuguesa [The 1975 elections: founding elections of Portuguese democracy ], Portugal: Assembleia da República [in Portuguese]
João Cancela and Marta Vicente (2019). Abstenção em Portugal: diagnóstico e hipóteses de reforma [Voter turnout in Portugal: portrait and potential reforms], Cascais: Estoril Institute for Global Dialogue [in Portuguese]
Tiago Fernandes (coord.), José Santana-Pereira, João Cancela, Edalina Sanches (2019). Instituições e qualidade da democracia. Cultura política na Europa do Sul [Institutions and the quality of democracy: Political culture in Southern Europe], Lisbon: Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos [in Portuguese]. PDF
João Cancela, Pedro Magalhães (2024), 'A (nova) clivagem urbano/rural nas atitudes políticas' In Marina Costa Lobo and Andréa Espírito-Santo (eds.), O eleitorado português no século XXI, Lisboa: Tinta da China.
João Cancela, Ana Rita Matias, and José Santana Pereira (2024), 'A abstenção em Portugal no século XXI: fatores explicativos da participação em perspectiva longitudinal' In Marina Costa Lobo and Andréa Espírito-Santo (eds.), O eleitorado português no século XXI, Lisboa: Tinta da China.
João Cancela (2023), 'Elections: Institutional Framework and Participation Dynamics' In Tiago Fernandes (ed.), Varieties of Democracy in Southern Europe, 1960s-2000s: A Comparison between Spain, France, Greece, Italy and Portugal, South Bend: Notre Dame Press (Kellogg Institute Series on Democracy and Development). [This chapter was previously published in Portuguese in Tiago Fernandes (ed.), Variedades de Democracia na Europa do Sul, 1968-2016: Uma Comparação entre Espanha, França, Grécia, Itália e Portugal, Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais. PDF]
João Cancela (2021), 'Uma questão de método: o impacto do sistema eleitoral nas eleições para a Assembleia Constituinte de 1975' In Filipa Raimundo and João Cancela (eds.), As Eleições de 1975. Eleições fundadoras da democracia portuguesa, Lisbon: Assembleia da República.
João Cancela (2020), 'Bridging the Gap? The Relationship between the Socialists and the Radical Left before and after the Government Deal' In Marco Lisi, André Freire, and Emmanouil Tsatsanis (eds.), Political Representation and Citizenship in Portugal: From Crisis to Renewal, Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
João Cancela (2020), 'Cartografia de um declive: a geografia da participação eleitoral nas eleições portuguesas (1975-2019)' ['Cartography of a slope: the geography of electoral turnout in Portugal (1975-2019)'] In Tiago Fernandes and Rui Branco (eds.), A Democracia Portuguesa 45 anos depois, Lisbon: Assembleia da República.
João Cancela and Pedro C. Magalhães (2020), 'As bases sociais dos partidos portugueses' ['The social bases of Portuguese parties'] In Tiago Fernandes and Rui Branco (eds.), A Democracia Portuguesa 45 anos depois, Lisbon: Assembleia da República.
João Cancela (2018), 'Eleições: Quadros Institucionais e Dinâmicas de Participação' In Tiago Fernandes (coord.), Variedades de Democracia na Europa do Sul, 1968-2016: Uma Comparação entre Espanha, França, Grécia, Itália e Portugal, Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais [in Portuguese].
Marco Lisi and João Cancela (2017), 'Ativismo e participação nos partidos portugueses' ['Activism and participation in Portuguese parties'] In Marco Lisi and Paula Espírito-Santo (coord.), Militantes e Ativismo nos Partidos Políticos. Portugal em Perspetiva Comparada, Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais [in Portuguese].
The title of my dissertation is The roots of political involvement: an empirical and comparative study. While my
main focus is on the Portuguese case I analyse data from a wide series of European countries. I try to provide an original answer to the puzzle of why some people participate more in the national realm of politics, while others tend to be more engaged with its local level. In a nutshell, the results show that geography plays a key role in determining how likely someone is to be active in different political scales.
I defended my dissertation in 2020, and so far I have published two papers stemming from my dissertation work, one in Electoral Studies , and the other in QOE: Italian Journal of Electoral Studies..
Rui Branco and Tiago Fernandes , with João Cancela and Thierry Dias Coelho (2012). "Démocratisation et société civile. Leçons de l’expérience portugaise". Pôle Sud, 2012/2 (n° 37), pp. 9-23